The National Weather Service Chicago asks this delightful question on its website: “So, Are We Almost Done With 1-Inch Snowfalls This Season?”
The answer, as you might expect, is “maybe.”
Historically speaking, the odds our in our favor for NOT having another snowfall of an inch or more. In fact, there’s a 52 percent chance we’re done.
Another stat in favor of the “that’s all folks” scenario is the six-to-10-day forecast of warm and wet weather. If we can get to the end of March without another dump, the chances of a 1-inch-or-more snow drops to 25 percent.
A major pattern change is expected to take place and result in a prolonged period of above-average temperatures through mid-March in Kane County, IL.
Here is the latest six-to-10-day outlook, which takes us into the first part of the middle of March.
Long-range models and forecasts suggest a very minimal risk of any measurable snowfall through around March 20. So, what are our chances of seeing a 1-inch snowfall on or after March 21?
Here’s a chart showing how quickly the daily chances of 1-inch snowfalls fall off during the end of March and into April:
Looking back at winters back to 1900 in Chicago, 52 percent of the years there were no 1-inch snowfalls on or after March 21, which means that there still is a 48 percent chance that we could see another 1-inch-plus snowfall. But as we said above, once we make it through the end of March, only about one in four years historically have produced a 1-inch snowfall after that date!
So, while we cannot say that the threat of additional 1-inch snowfalls is done, the window of opportunity for 1-inch-plus snowfalls will be quickly closing.
SOURCE: National Weather Service Chicago